A pair of storms is anticipated to bring much-needed rainfall to drought-stricken areas of the southern United States from the Gulf Coast to the Interstate 40 corridor. While these storms mark a return to warmer conditions after a colder spell, meteorologists from AccuWeather caution that one of the storms may also trigger severe weather.

Rain has been accumulating over the western and central Gulf of Mexico since Sunday, and an approaching storm from the Southwest is expected to bring rain northward over the Gulf Coast states, along with milder conditions. The rainfall is predicted to expand from central Texas to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, West Virginia, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas on Thursday and Friday.

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Brett Anderson notes that a general 1-2 inches of rain is expected in the lower part of the Mississippi Valley and Delta, with the possibility of 2-4 inches and locally higher amounts in northeastern Texas, western Louisiana, and southwestern Arkansas. Some of this rain will fall on areas experiencing exceptional drought, the most extreme level according to the United States Drought Monitor.

While widespread flash flooding is not expected, localized flooding is possible where rainfall overwhelms storm drains. The risk of severe weather, including powerful wind gusts, flash flooding, and a few tornadoes, exists, particularly on Thursday in central Texas to Louisiana, western Mississippi, southeastern Oklahoma, and southern Arkansas.

Following the exit of the first storm from the Southern states, a new storm is expected to develop over the Gulf of Mexico, bringing another round of moisture. This second storm will be more of a rainmaker for the Southeastern states, with areas from Louisiana to Virginia and northern Florida expected to receive substantial rainfall.

The combination of these two storms may result in rainfall totals ranging from 4 to 8 inches in parts of the region, providing relief to areas suffering from drought. Cities like New Orleans and Jackson, Mississippi, have experienced below-average rainfall since July 1, and the upcoming storms are expected to alleviate the dry conditions.

Additionally, the rainfall on the middle portions of the Mississippi watershed may lead to a slight rise in water levels of the Mississippi River in the coming weeks. This is particularly significant as the river has been running within several feet of record low levels since late summer.

The occurrence of these storms aligns with signs of a storm track related to an El Niño pattern, which tends to activate the southern branch of the jet stream and bring tropical moisture to parts of the Southern states. Another storm next week could bring additional rain to the region, providing ongoing relief from the persistent drought.

credit for inspiration: accuweather